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Warmer March Slows Storage Depletion as LNG Expansions Loom
A warmer than average March across most of the U.S. has significantly slowed down U.S. storage depletion. Last week we saw our first injection of the year, which started to turn storage forecasts closer to 5-year averages by the end of injection season. We continue to closely follow summer forecasts and new LNG facilities that are scheduled to come online in the back half of 2025.
Bearish
- Mild March weather is sweeping across the majority of the country, reducing overall energy demand.
- The dissipation of trade war tensions is easing uncertainty in the market.
- An improving economic outlook may lead to reduced volatility in energy markets.
- A technical market crash has contributed to shifts in investor sentiment.
Bullish
- Production forecasts remain stagnant from some of the largest producers, limiting supply growth.
- LNG exports continue to hit record levels, adding pressure to domestic supply.
- Gas in storage now lasts about 40 days, down from 65 to 70 days just a few years ago.
- The 2025 production and demand forecast are expected to settle at a deficit of 2.3 BCF per day.
Storage Report: 3/27/25: Warmer Weather and Rising Production Drive Larger Injection
Expected Injection – 34 BCF
Actual Injection – 37 BCF
Current Storage Level – 1,744 BCF – 6.5% below the 5-year average
Continued stretches of warmer weather throughout the U.S. paired with a slight increase in production has helped propel gas storage for the second week in a row.
NOAA MAP: Warmer East, Cooler West Expected in 8-14 Day Outlook
Regional Dot Plots
Rolling Gas Curve
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