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Speculation, Tariff Uncertainty, and LNG Maintenance Weigh on Bullish Outlook Amid Record-Heat Forecasts
Speculation and technical trading continue to move markets over the past few weeks. Market fundamentals still lean bullish with summer forecasts calling for a warmer than average summer across the U.S. with a potentially top 10 hottest summer on record. Uncertainty surrounding tariff implications have helped push prompt pricing lower, additionally strong injections and a slight decline in LNG exports due to maintenance have helped push pricing slightly as well. The next 18 months still have a good amount of upside risk, as the market tries to find some footing amidst all of the uncertainty going on.
Bearish
- Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline maintenance is currently underway.
- Natural gas injections have been seasonally high.
- Investments in gas storage infrastructure have continued.
Bullish
- Summer weather forecasts are being closely watched by the market.
- Natural gas production has remained flat.
- Gas demand for power generation has increased.
Storage Report: 6/12/25: Above Average Injection Adds to Climbing Storage Despite Subpar Levels
Expected Injection – 107 BCF
Actual Injection – 109 BCF
Current Storage Level – 2,707 BCF – 5.4% above the 5-year average
Storage has continued to climb, with multiple injections over 100BCF, well above seasonal averages.
NOAA MAP: Widespread Heat Targets Central and Eastern U.S. as West Coast Stays Cooler
Regional Dot Plots
Rolling Gas Curve
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