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Early Injections Push Storage Above 5-Year Average Amid Mixed Signals
Thanks to injection season beginning a month early, natural gas storage levels have miraculously climbed back above the 5-year average. Despite being at a storage “surplus” the past couple of weeks, natural gas pricing has been slowly (and painfully) increasing day after day.
Recessionary forecasts brought about an “oversold” Natural Gas that’s now in the midst of a correction. Near term forward curves will likely be influenced by the results of tariff negotiations. In the case that the majority of tariffs are lifted, and the economic outlook improves, energy markets could increase rather rapidly.
Bearish
- Storage levels are above the five-year average.
- The economy is showing signs of instability.
- Spring weather has been mild.
Bullish
- Summer weather is approaching, which often marks the beginning of speculative trading season.
- Natural gas production levels are expected to remain stagnant.
- Demand is projected to increase due to new LNG terminals coming online through 2027.
- Ongoing trade war uncertainty continues to impact market sentiment.
Storage Report: 5/8/25: Early Injections Due to Warm Weather
Expected Injection – 103 BCF
Actual Injection – 104 BCF
Current Storage Level – 2,145 BCF – 1.4% below the 5-year average
Storage has recovered to above the 5-year average due to favorable temperatures throughout the past two months. Levels remain 412 BCF lower than last year at this time – there is still work to be done to prepare for next winter.
NOAA MAP: Warm Temperatures in the East, Cool to Normal in the West
Regional Dot Plots
Rolling Gas Curve
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