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Mild Spring Weather Kick-Starts Storage Injection Season
Mild weather in March allowed for natural gas storage injection season to start nearly a month early. These early injections quickly helped replenish storage levels closer to the 5-year average. At the time of the first injection, we were 11% below the 5-year average. As of today, we are only 2% below the 5-year average. Economic pessimism has also contributed to bearish market pressure. Typically during a recession, demand decreases while production remains the same. The expectation that we will enter a recession soon has placed a significant amount of bearish pressure on the energy markets.
Bearish
- Injections into US natural gas storage are early.
- Tariff pauses are helping calm market volatility.
- Speculator activity is flipping back to net long.
- Economic pessimism is indicating a potential decrease in demand.
Bullish
- Production increases are only happening with new LNG facilities.
- Demand is increasing from expected LNG terminals through 2027.
- Trade war uncertainty continues.
Storage Report: 4/24/25: Early Injections Due to Warm Weather
Expected Injection – 69 BCF
Actual Injection – 88 BCF
Current Storage Level – 1,934 BCF – 2.2% below the 5-year average
Storage has recovered close to the 5-year average due to a warmer than average March allowing for early injections. It is doubtful that this injection season will put us in the same position we were in at the end of the last injection season, but these early injections have helped with bearish market pressure.
NOAA MAP: Warmer Than Average Temperature Expected In Several Regions
Regional Dot Plots
Rolling Gas Curve
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