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Winter Withdrawals Continue Amid Record LNG Exports and Limited Production Growth
As things stand currently, we are in the middle of the 4th largest withdrawal season. Cold January and February paired with record LNG exports has led to large withdrawals week over week. While colder weather is moving in out west, the east coast is seeing warmer than normal temperatures, we are watching to see the impact that will have on our storage levels as we close out withdrawal season. Although markets have risen quite a bit and LNG exports are increasing throughout 2025, major producers have noted no plans to increase a significant amount of production.
Bearish
- Mild March weather across most of the country has reduced gas demand by 10 BCF/day compared to last week.
- The dissipation of trade war tensions is easing market uncertainty.
- An improving economic outlook may lead to reduced volatility in energy markets.
Bullish
- Expected demand growth from data centers is increasing volatility in electric markets.
- LNG exports have reached record levels, adding pressure to domestic supply.
- U.S. storage levels near 5-year lows, raising concerns about future availability.
Storage Report: 3/13/25: Larger Than Expected Withdrawal as LNG Exports Limit Stock Rebuild
Expected Withdrawal – 49 BCF
Actual Withdrawal – 62 BCF
Current Storage Level – 1,698 BCF – 12% below the 5-year average
Warmer weather has curbed some of these larger injections that we have seen over the past weeks. Strong LNG export activity is keeping stocks from climbing back up to the 5-year average.
NOAA MAP: Warmer East, Cooler West Expected in 8-14 Day Outlook
Regional Dot Plots
Rolling Gas Curve
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