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Cold Start Spikes Prices, But Warmer Outlook Brings Relief
A cold start to this year pushed prices up over January. With February and March predicted to be on the warmer side, we’ve seen some price relief recently. We expect this price relief to continue as the weather warms. Production increases and healthy storage levels have also helped stabilize the market. Production will need to remain high to combat new demand from new LNG export facilities.
Bearish
- Natural gas production increases.
- Storage still holding above the five-year average.
- Warmer weather outlook for the rest of Winter.
- Golden Pass (new LNG terminal) may face delays into 2026.
Bullish
- Expected demand growth from data centers, causing more volatility in electric markets.
- New LNG export facilities ramping up feed gas demand.
- European prices are rising, and storage levels are below average and depleting quickly.
Storage Report: 2/6/25: Colder Weather Drives Higher Withdrawal
Expected Withdrawal – 317 BCF
Actual Withdrawal- 321 BCF
Current Storage Level – 2,571 BCF – 4% below the 5-year average
Initial Projections suggested a large withdrawal this week. Actual withdrawal came in 4 BCF higher. Colder weather that over half of the country experienced through last week increased heating demand and likely drove this big of a withdrawal.
NOAA MAP: Warmer Than Normal Temperatures Expected Across the East
Regional Dot Plots
Rolling Gas Curve
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