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Winter Withdrawals Drain Storage as LNG Projects and Energy Demand Grow
Colder weather has continued into the front half of February, with recent forecasts suggesting that the cold will continue for the east coast into the back half of the month. A series of large withdrawals, including the fourth largest on record, have caused storage levels to dip below the 5-year average. Projected 2025 production is up to 105 BCF/D from 104 BCF/D last month. Will we have enough production to refill our storage levels while we feed new LNG projects, and meet growing electric demand?
Bearish
- Natural gas production is increasing.
- Golden Pass (new LNG terminal) may face delays into 2026.
- DeepSeek technology has the potential to reduce power demand growth.
Bullish
- Demand growth from data centers is expected to cause more volatility in electric markets.
- New LNG export facilities are ramping up feedgas demand.
- U.S. storage levels are below the 5-year average.
- European prices are rising, and storage levels are below average and depleting quickly.
Storage Report: 2/13/25: Higher Than Expected Withdrawal Despite Brief Weather Improvement
Expected Withdrawal – 96 BCF
Actual Withdrawal – 100 BCF
Current Storage Level – 2,297 BCF – 3% below the 5-year average
Initial projections predicted a milder withdrawal than we’ve seen the past several weeks at only 96 BCF. However, actual withdrawal came in 4 BCF higher than that. A lot of the country experienced a temporary reprieve from the colder weather, likely driving this lower withdrawal and getting us closer to the 5-year average.
NOAA MAP: Colder East, Warmer West Expected in 8-14 Day Outlook
Regional Dot Plots
Rolling Gas Curve
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